What should tomorrow's world energy production look like?
A GreenFacts summary of the IEA's global energy scenarios to 2050
Brussels, 9 February 2009. The projected substantial growth in the global economy between 2008 and 2050 implies an increase in energy needs. Unsustainable pressures on the environment and on natural resources are inevitable if energy demand remains closely coupled with economic growth and if fossil fuel demand is not reduced. A dramatic shift is needed in government energy policies, ensuring longer-term planning on which industries can rely.
Global energy scenarios & strategies to 2050 are explored by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their 'Energy Technology Perspectives 2008' report.
Highlights of IEA report on Energy Technology Perspectives
Under 'business-as-usual' the IEA foresees a 70% increase in
oil demand by 2050 and a 130% rise in CO2 emissions. That is, in
the absence of policy change and major supply constraints.
Scenarios were developed to assess the efforts needed to either stabilize energy-related
CO2 emissions at the level they were in 2005, or even to reduce them
to 50% of that level by 2050. The goal of the most ambitious scenarios
is to limit global warming to 2 - 2.4 °C, a level that would prevent its
most severe consequences. This goal requires urgent implementation of unprecedented
new energy policies, the widespread deployment of technologies still under development,
and additional investments in the energy sector that could reach 1.1% of global
GDP each year between now and 2050.
Energy efficiency improvements in buildings, appliances, transport,
industry and power generation represent the largest and least costly
area for reducing CO2 emissions. Next are the measures to produce
energy through renewable sources, nuclear power, and CO2 capture
and storage (CCS) technologies. Action in all these areas is urgent and necessary.
Some of the technologies needed are not yet available, and many others require
further refinement and cost reductions. A huge effort of research, development,
and demonstration (RD&D) is therefore urgently required, both in
the public and the private sector. It is estimated that the public sector needs
to increase research and development investments by as much as ten times the
current amounts.
Most new technologies are more expensive than established ones, and it is only
through their deployment that costs can be reduced and the
product adapted to the market. Governments must enhance deployment programmes,
especially for technologies with the greatest potential such as biofuels and
solar energy.
International collaboration is essential to accelerate the
development and global deployment of sustainable energy technologies in the
most efficient way. Networks in which numerous technology experts from around
the world co-ordinate their energy technology programmes already exist. These
networks need strong international leadership from policy makers at the highest
level.
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GreenFacts was created in 2001 by individuals from scientific institutions, environmental and health organizations, and businesses, who called for wider access to unbiased information on health and the environment.
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